Corisk and NUPI present study of Europe’s strategic choices for the war in Ukraine
How can Ukraine prevail in the war, and what are the economic costs of two key scenarios – a Russian or Ukrainian victory. Corisk launched the study in cooperation with researchers from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) and other academic institutions, on 25 November, 2025. Corisk contributed with analysis of costs, production, trade and sanction effects.
Corisk for business
Corisk helps clients understand and manage country risk in demanding markets. Many companies get unwillingly involved in corruption, crime, or human rights violations. Sanctions create complex compliance challenges. We advice compliance officers in their efforts to clean up their value chain.
Corisk for scientists
Corisk explores topics within economics, sanctions and sanction evasion, and we regularly publish scientific reports within these fields. Our unique and granular databases include Eurasian trade, Western shadow trade with Russia, war-critical goods, and trade currencies. SITE NUPI
Corisk and governments – Corisk assists several European governments and institutions in analysing the progression and challenges of current sanctions, and their economic effects. We have served as expert witness at EU Relex, EU EAS, OSCE Winter Plenary, G7+ Sanctions Seminars, in the EU Parliament and before several national governments.
Corisk investigates sanction evasion and trade flows across the Eurasian value chains. Our unique databases has helped government, customs officials, and compliance officers detect the loopholes, and strengthen enforcement and compliance.
Corisk offers unique insights into country risk in demanding markets
Services
Country Risks for M&A
We support clients throughout an investment or M&A in demanding markets. We support process design, market scanning and analysis, Due Diligence, choice of jurisdiction, red flag reporting, and risk mitigation before or after deal closing. If further international niche competence is needed, we support the vendor selection and sourcing process to ensure that the client buys critical services at the right cost.
Tailored studies and country reports
We deliver tailored studies of various topics and countries. We analyse risks and scenarios that determine economic, political or security development, human rights, or reputational outcomes. If complementary niche insights are needed, we source this from selected international partners.
People
Jon Samuelsen
Erlend B Bjørtvedt
Bjørn J Berger
Casper Waagbø
Shayekh ibn Emdad
Erlend B Bjørtvedt (CEO) is an experienced advisor and analyst within country risk, sanctions, and economics He has appeared as an expert before several EU panels, the EU Parliament, the OSCE Winter Plenary and the G7+ sanction experts group – and in leading media including Bloomberg, Al-Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, FAZ, Der Spiegel, Arte-TV, and numerous Nordic media.
Erlend has held several leading position within country risk and strategic public affairs headed at Telenor Group and Hill+Knowlton. he holds a Cand.Phil degree in economic history and economics, with minors and certificates finance, Russian history and language. He has published various reports and scientific articles within economic growth and national accounting.
Jon Samuelsen (Chairman) is a political scientist and experienced business manager and strategist. He has held leading positions within publishing, sales, distribution, student services and housing, and intellectual property rights. He is a program manager at the Confederation of Norwegian Businesses (NHO).
Jon earned his degree at the University of Oslo, with majors in political science and minors in history and economics.
Casper Waagbø (student research intern) works on various data projects and conducts research in Russian sources. He took part in the Corisk-Nupi study (25 Nov 2025). Casper studies intelligence and international security at Oslo Nye Høyskole. He focuses specifically on OSINT research and intelligence.
Bjørn Johan Berger (data analysis) is a leading Norwegian media analyst and critic, and supports digitalisation and data analysis at Corisk. Bjørn is one of Norway’s most renowned analysts and columnists on the development of Nordic and European support for Ukraine. He has received several prizes for his work.
He has broad experience from the IT industry including as a startup agent. Bjørn has a degree from Copenhagen Business School, Denmark.
Shayekh Ibn Emdad (Asia) is a leading expert in sustainability, business environment management, and corporate governance. He held several expert positions at GrameenPhone, and the UNAids, Palli Karma-Sahayak Foundation.
Shayekh holds a Master’s degree in Social Welfare and Research from the University of Dhaka. Further, and an MBA degree from the University Canada West, Vancouver.
Transparency and funding
Corisk is a privately held stock company registered in Norway. Mr Erlend Bollman Bjørtvedt is the company’s sole and ultimate owner. We receive more than 90 % of our funding from public funds. Our main contributors in 2023 and 2024 were the Open Society Foundation (New York) and the Foundation Fritt Ord (Oslo). In 2025, our main contributors were Fritt Ord, the Opsvik Foundation (sub-contracting with The Norwegian Helsinki Committee), and payments for services rendered to a handful of listed companies on the Oslo Stock Exchange. We accept commercial customers after a Due Diligence and assessment of their good intentions, and fully in accordance with our Code of Conduct.